ISW warns Ukraine about Putin's 'winter' plans.

Russia is ramping up production of 'shahids' for winter attacks on Ukraine.

According to ISW, Russia is increasing the production of 'shahids' ahead of the winter campaign for 2024-2025, despite sanctions and restrictions. In the special economic zone 'Alabuga' in Tatarstan, 5,760 drones were produced in the first nine months of 2024, double the amount produced in all of 2023. A contract has also been signed for the production of 6,000 'shahids' by September 2025.

Russia also plans to manufacture up to 10,000 decoy drones similar to 'shahids' by the end of 2024 to overcome Ukrainian air defense systems. This is related to the partnership with Iran that is expected in 2025. Analysts note that new workshops have been built at the factory in Tatarstan, protective nets have been installed, and a rail branch has been created for the supply of components from China.

However, Russia is facing a problem with the supply of quality parts due to sanctions, and therefore uses low-quality Chinese engines. On the other hand, the Ukrainian side is effectively countering 'shahid' strikes due to electronic warfare.

The Russian army continues to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and is adapting its strike strategies. The situation could be exacerbated by the expected strategic partnership with Iran in 2025.

Earlier, it was reported about Putin's readiness for peace negotiations.